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What is the Outlook for World Durum Production?

Global durum production is expected to rebound in 2022/23, but stocks are likely to remain tight this season.

Total durum production in 2022/23 is expected to increase 10% to 33.9 MMT, led by increases in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. While durum production in North America looks good, production across Europe and North Africa is expected to fall. Reductions are led by the E.U. and Australia. Kazakhstan is expected to produce more durum but has banned wheat exports through September. Countries across North Africa, including Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia, grow significant domestic crops, but durum production this year is forecast to be smaller, increasing the need for imports.

Drought Slashed Production

Last year, leading durum producers, including the United States and Canada, experienced hot weather and dry conditions that drastically cut production. Worldwide, beginning stocks of durum, according to Stratégie Grains, are 7.9 MMT, 1.6 MMT less than 2021/22. However, unlike last year, durum production estimates outside the E.U. and North Africa look good.

European Union

According to Stratégie Grains, a European research analyst, production across the European Union (E.U.) is seen falling to historically low levels due to dry weather. Stratégie Grains cut its E.U. durum production forecast by 600,000 MT between May and July. Stratégie Grains now forecasts production at 7.0 MMT, 9% behind 2021/22; if realized, this would be the lowest durum production since 1997.

Italy is by far the largest European durum user. Demand is pegged at 6.1 MMT. It produces a sizeable domestic crop but is experiencing a severe drought this year. An extremely dry winter and spring followed by hot weather since late spring has left the growing area parched, leading to the worst conditions in 70 years. The Italian government this month declared a state of emergency.

Heat is On in Europe

According to Coldiretti, an Italian agricultural lobby, the country’s durum and “common” wheat production this year is expected to fall 15% as the drought slashes yields. The Italian Millers’ Industrial Association expects durum production to fall 10% to 3.5 MMT.

Italian durum production, estimated at 3.4 MMT, is expected to fall 2.6 MMT short of total demand. According to USDA sales data, for the 2022/23 marketing year, which began June 1, U.S. durum sales to Italy are up 124% compared to the same time last year.

United States

According to the USDA June Acreage Report, in the U.S., durum wheat planted area increased by 34% to 1.98 million acres (801,277 hectares). In the USDA’s July WASDE report, durum production in 2022/23 is forecast at 2.1 MMT, more than double 2021/22. Exports are expected to increase twofold to 800,000 MT.

The latest Crop Progress Report, published by USDA on July 18, rated 80% of North Dakota’s wheat good or excellent, while Montana reported 50% good or excellent. North Dakota and Montana together account for 93% of the durum wheat grown in the U.S.

USW chart showing U.S. durum production, stocks and export sales

More Durum, More Sales. USDA’s first forecasts of U.S. durum production and exports in marketing year 2022/23 are up significantly. The market will be watching conditions closely from now until harvest.

Canada

Canada, usually the largest durum exporter globally, saw sluggish durum exports in the 2021/22 season. Western Canada experienced a devastating drought in 2021, which slashed yields and cut production by 53%. According to Statistic Canada, durum exports were 60% behind their 2020/21 pace through February, the latest data available.

This year looks different. Statistics Canada projects a 75% increase in supply. Canadian production is forecast at 5.52 MMT in 2022/23 due to increased seeded area and improved yields. Exports are also expected to increase 72% to 4.3 MMT.

Mexico

Durum production dominates Mexico’s total wheat production. USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service in June 2022 dropped its forecast of Mexican wheat production slightly to 3.26 MMT for 2022/23. This change was based on information from industry and official government sources, reflecting unfavorable weather conditions and other factors. Mexico’s total durum and wheat exports are forecast at 850,000 MT.

Global Demand

Global demand for durum wheat is projected to increase 1.0 MMT to 32.9 MMT in 2022/23. As a result of the lower domestic production in many countries, global trade for durum is projected to increase 1.5 MMT to 7.4 MMT in 2022/23.

Stratégie Grains forecasts durum E.U. imports from non E.U. members to be 2.4 MMT, 1.0 MMT more than last year. Imports to Morocco are expected to increase 400,000 MT to 1.1 MMT.

Outlook More Optimistic

The tight ending stocks and a poor European harvest kept durum prices initially high at the start of 2022/23. Now increased planted acres and a positive outlook for the upcoming harvest have created an optimistic outlook for the North American durum crop and potentially easing export prices. However, another year of tight supplies and unknown variables, especially weather, between now and harvest could mean price fluctuations for the marketing year ahead.

The weekly Price Report, published by U.S. Wheat Associates, shows price indications, including durum wheat. USW also publishes annual crop quality data, including for durum wheat. The 2022/23 U.S. durum crop quality will be reported this fall.

Photo of durum kernels to illustrate durum production story

U.S. Durum Production is in North Dakota and Montana where Northern Durum is grown and shipped from Great Lakes and Pacific ports; Desert Durum® is grown primarily under contract in the desert Southwest and shipped via the Gulf or West Coast.

*Supply and demand estimates for durum wheat including world production, beginning stocks, EU-specific highlights, Italy, and Morocco, are based on Stratégie Grains’ July 15, 2022, Durum Report.

By USW Market Analyst Michael Anderson

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Harvest and Much Improved Conditions Pressure U.S. Soft White Market

Volatility remains the key word when looking at wheat prices, and the soft white (SW) market is no exception.

From their rapid increase following the severe drought in 2020/21 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in March 2022, U.S. wheat futures have declined recently and were down more than 4% on July 5, hitting a multi-month low. While SW does not trade on a futures exchange, as a soft wheat, it reflects the CBOT soft red winter (SRW) futures price that settled July 5 at $8.07, the lowest level since February 18, before the invasion. On July 6, the July contract SRW contracted slipped further, falling below $8.00/MT.

New Crop Arriving

The U.S. SRW and hard red winter (HRW) wheat harvests are underway, helping push futures and SW prices down as the market takes in news about crop conditions and yield potential. An additional bearish factor is improved crop conditions boosting confidence for this year’s hard red spring (HRS) crop.

Abundant moisture and cooler temperatures this growing season have benefited the SW crop but also slowed crop progress, causing a slight delay in this summer’s harvest.

More SW to Come Slightly Late

One wheat trader shared an anecdote about harvest timing from a Washington-based wheat farmer. Each year the farmer looks to when a specific type of flower blooms to indicate when harvest will start. Usually, the flowers bloom around mid-June, and wheat typically matures about three weeks later. But this year, the flowers did not bloom until the end of June, so the farmer expects to start harvest around July 15.

This look ahead at the new SW crop also helps to explain the quick run-up in SW export prices in May when “old crop” stocks were being drawn down and in June when the price started to turn toward a middle ground.

U.S. soft white wheat futures prices over time

Moderating SW Prices. As the harvest of a much improved and potentially high-yielding U.S. SW wheat crop draws near, new crop prices have come down to a level similar to prices in August 2021. Source: USW.

Buyers of SW around the world are all too familiar with the impact of drought and heat on 2021 SW production and functional characteristics, as well as export prices. This year things are different.

“Much Better” Production

The U.S. Drought Monitor keeps statistics comparing changes in drought status from year to year. A recent comparison map (below) shows significant improvement in the Pacific Northwest SW and white club production region, as well as in much of the U.S. HRS and northern durum production region.

U.S. Drought Monitor map from June 2022 showing changes in drought status from June 2021 to June 2022

Source: U.S. Drought Monitor.

In an interview with the Moscow-Pullman Daily News, Glen Squires, chief executive officer for the Washington Grain Commission, highlighted the volatility and numerous factors that fueled and then decelerated the SW wheat market. Weather, he emphasizes, is a key part of what is behind the market right now.

“Our wheat production in the Pacific Northwest is supposed to be a much better this year,” Squires said. “If the estimates are accurate, we could have 20 million bushels (544,366 metric tons) over our five-year average. So that plays into (the market volatility) a little bit.”

Buyers can monitor U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Harvest Reports for weekly updates on harvest progress and initial crop quality data and follow more news about the 2022 harvest through state wheat commissions and regional USW office updates.

By USW Market Analyst Michael Anderson

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Export Bans Contrast with U.S. Wheat’s Commitment to an Open, Transparent Market

Consumers and suppliers both appreciate uniformity, the ability to purchase a reliable product that is available when needed. Customers of U.S. wheat know that dependable people grow and supply reliable wheat, which marks the difference between the U.S. wheat market and some competing suppliers.

Freedom to Trade

Free trade has been upheld in U.S. commerce since the country’s founding. The Export Clause, in Article I, Section 9, Clause 5 of the U.S. Constitution, states, “No Tax or Duty shall be laid on Articles exported from any State.” The framers of the constitution, eager to throw off the history of colonial rule, made it a policy that goods from the U.S. would be available to markets worldwide, and no elected official would tell them otherwise.

However, farmers have fought for uninhibited trade.

When the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1980, President Carter cut off U.S. grain exports to the Soviets. In the aftermath of the grain embargo, more stringent laws such as the export sales reporting and contract sanctity law were passed that doubled down on the freedom of commerce.

Protectionism Rising

Despite the sincere efforts by the World Trade Organization (WTO) to keep international markets open, some countries remain quick to block exports when markets become uncertain. Covid-19 and the global shutdowns that followed showed a pattern of export bans from major commodity producers. Russia’s recent invasion of Ukraine has also had a reverberating effect on the grain markets. Many would-be suppliers have instead banned or restricted the sale of their wheat, creating a supply worry and once again proving that not all markets remain reliable.

When countries implement wheat export bans claiming to protect their domestic market it creates uncertainty and higher prices for buyers. Putin’s war with Ukraine pushed already increasing world wheat prices to spike to more than a decade high in March, and prices remain elevated.

Putin’s war with Ukraine pushed increasing world wheat prices to spike to more than a decade high in March, and prices remain elevated. The latest USDA Supply and Demand Report expects Ukrainian wheat exports to fall by nearly half year-over-year from 19.0 million metric tons (MMT) in 2021/22 to 10.0 MMT in 2022/23. This 9.0 MMT reduction is almost the equivalent of all the wheat Turkey is expected to import in 2022/23. Russia’s unprovoked invasion has interrupted Ukrainian commercial sales and added uncertainty to the market.

India abruptly halted commercial wheat exports on May 13, catching the wheat market off guard. The immediate suspension has moderated somewhat since then. Still, the government’s promise to fulfill export shortages caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was an unexpected and costly blow to the market.

Intervention Expands

Other countries have weighed the use of export-curbing measures. Argentina’s president in May urged its legislature to increase export taxes to protect domestic prices from “surging international prices.” Kazakhstan applied a quota on wheat, including durum, soft wheat, and wheat flour, from April 15 to June 1. Belarus imposed an export ban on grains from late 2021 to early 2022.

And Russia, with a very large wheat crop now expected, has not stopped its protectionist wheat export tax that only increases the cost for buyers. Russia also imposed export bans on countries in the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), which comprises former Soviet countries. The ban is in place from Mid-March to August 31, 2022.

When countries implement wheat export bans, they often claim to be protecting their domestic market. But the actual effect is higher prices for every buyer. Export bans also create uncertainty. India’s sudden export ban is a prime example.

“We bought wheat from traders and moved it to ports,” said a wheat trader caught off guard by India’s export ban. “Our intention is to fulfill export commitments, but we can’t overrule government policy. Therefore, we don’t have any option but to declare force majeure*.”

Buyers expect reliability, and that requires suppliers to have dependable partners. U.S. wheat farmers and their export supply chain partners, with government support, strive to be that dependable partner to world wheat buyers.

By Michael Anderson, USW Market Analyst

*Force Majeure is a provision in a contract that frees both parties from obligation if an extraordinary event directly prevents one or both parties from performing.

Header photo courtesy of Adams Farms LLC in Oklahoma, June 2022

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Scenes From A Variable but Smaller Kansas Wheat Crop

The anxiously awaited Hard Winter Wheat Tour sponsored by the Wheat Quality Council that ended May 19, confirmed that persistent drought will cut the yield potential of the 2022 Kansas wheat crop to its lowest level since 2018. The 83 participants scouting the crop estimated the average yield potential at 39.7 bushels per acre (52.71 kilograms per hectoliter) compared to the average tour estimate of 47.4 bu/ac (62.66 kg/hl) between 2016 and 2021 (there was no tour in 2020).

Still, the hard red winter (HRW) and hard white (HW) crop potential is quite variable across Kansas. The photos taken by participants shared here show the wide range of crop conditions. Timely precipitation and cropping patterns made a significant difference, even in extremely dry southwestern Kansas. Jennifer Latzke, editor of Kansas Farmer magazine, reported this observation from the tour on May 18.

The tour participants also estimated total production from the scouted area at 261 million bushels. That is less than USDA’s most recent estimate of Kansas wheat production, even though the tour yield estimate was slightly higher than USDA’s estimate of 39.0 bu/ac.

Higher Abandonment

“The participants agreed that there will be more fields abandoned than USDA has estimated,” said U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Market Analyst Michael Anderson. USW Assistant Director, West Coast Office, Tyllor Ledford, joined Anderson as tour scouts this year.

Photo shows T. Ledford in a field estimating Kansas wheat crop.

USW Assistant Director, West Coast Office, Tyllor Ledford scouted a Rooks County, Kansas, wheat field on May 17, 2022, the first day of the Hard Winter Wheat tour.

“Some fields have wheat plants that are so short, they likely will not be, or cannot be, harvested,” Anderson said. “The more experienced participants had a keen sense that making an insurance claim would be the best decision for those fields with questionable potential. I have to say, however, that during the tour, our group saw only isolated fields like that.”

Neighboring Crops Also Stressed

Kansas Wheat’s report from the last day of the tour included the following update on crop conditions in Nebraska, Colorado and Oklahoma.

Dry wheat field from Pratt County showing drought in Kansas Wheat Crop

Photo from a #wheattour2022 Tweet on May 18, 2022.

The USDA estimate for the Nebraska wheat crop is ­­36.9 million bushels, down from 41.2 million in 2021. The estimated yield average is 41 bu/ac. USDA expects the Colorado crop at 49.6 million bushels, down from 69.6 million bushels last year. However, Colorado Wheat Executive Director Brad Erker estimated the state’s crop at 40.1 million bushels, based on a yield of 28.6 bu/ac, with a 30% abandonment rate. Oklahoma reported that the state’s production is estimated at 60 million bushels, down from 115 million bushels last year, with 25 bu/ac yield.

This Week’s Snapshot

The Wheat Quality Council (WQC) is a coordinated effort by breeders, producers and processors to improve wheat and flour quality. WQC executive director Dave Green said that this tour and a Hard Spring Wheat tour scheduled later this year are important to make connections within the wheat industry. He said another goal is to “describe the wheat as well as we can at the current point in time, not knowing what will happen over the next few weeks.”

Harvest is still more than three weeks away. Any potential rain, or lack of it, to come will affect final yields. In addition, even very thin fields may be harvested. As Kansas Farmer editor Latzke wrote: “At $13 per bushel, every bushel … counts.”

Domestic and overseas wheat buyers can continue to monitor 2021 progress for most U.S. wheat classes by subscribing to the USW Harvest Report posted on the website every Friday.

 

Close up of super dry soil and wheat in a field showing drought in Kansas wheat crop

The obvious effects of the deep drought are clear in this Tweet on May 18 from Clay Patton.

 

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War is Just the Latest Factor Behind Higher World Food Prices

Low-income consumers in import-dependent countries will face the greatest hardships as the unprovoked Russian invasion of Ukraine and other factors push world food prices higher. That is one conclusion from a USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) analysis released in April. U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) is a cooperating partner with FAS export market development programs.

Bullish Since Late 2020

The FAS analysis looked at factors that affected world food prices in late 2020. They include increased demand led by China, drought-reduced supplies, tighter wheat, corn and soybean stocks in major exporting countries, and high energy prices that have raised farm production costs. The report said Russia’s attack on Ukraine has disrupted Black Sea agricultural exports, pushing prices even higher, and exacerbating high energy and fertilizer costs.

Chart showing world food prices near record levels

China is one of the leading countries ramping up imports, with import volume doubling in 2020/21 as State Trading Enterprises helped replace and rebuild aging government reserves. Demand for feed-quality wheat also surged.

Protecting Domestic Supplies

In addition, the report stated that world food prices were up in part because 11 countries had implemented export bans for products ranging from wheat, wheat flour, barley, rye, corn, and oilseeds, to lentils, fava beans, and pasta. That list includes Russia, which had already imposed an export tax in 2021. And in early May, the potential impact of a severe heatwave in India brought rumors its government was contemplating some export restrictions.

Interestingly, the FAS report acknowledged that global wheat production was adequate in 2020/21 and only one percent below consumption requirements in 2021/22 on an aggregate level.

Related to wheat supply, USW President Vince Peterson recently offered a more nuanced observation of the situation for the world’s wheat buyers.

“The bottom line for wheat-dependent importers in the short term is not necessarily a supply-shortage crisis, but rather an economic-financial crisis caused by having to pay much higher prices in the current market scenario,” Peterson said. “It is also a logistical challenge for the world to efficiently move the wheat supplies to places where they are most deficit.”

Lower Exportable Supplies

And yet, major exporters’ stocks in 2021/22 are forecast to be at their lowest levels in 10 years, putting upward pressure on global prices.

Chart shows U.S. wheat prices in relation to annual supplies among wheat exporting countries.

USW agrees that higher world food prices affect the poorest countries and households the most.

“It is so sad to think of more people being pushed into food insecurity around the world, but that is happening,” said Mike Schulte, executive director of the Oklahoma Wheat Commission and chair of the USW and National Association of Wheat Growers Food Aid Working Group.

Schulte’s comment came as USW and NAWG welcomed recent news that the U.S. government will provide more funding for food assistance to countries in need and help cover food aid transportation costs.

“Wheat has long been the most often donated commodity for food aid programs, and wheat growers are ready again in this crisis to help ease the hunger,” Schulte added.

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Soft White Wheat Crop Looks Better This Year

Analysis of the wheat market since February has been underscored by volatility, and no less so for the U.S. soft white (SW) wheat market.

The sudden exit of Ukraine from the export market and the uncertainty of Russia’s wheat exports are recent factors in market volatility. Dry weather is another important consideration for winter wheat markets.

The most recent USDA crop progress report rated 27% of the entire U.S. winter wheat crop as good or excellent, a 3-point drop from last week and the lowest level since 1989 for this time of year. The report encompasses all winter wheat, including SW grown in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). And with summer fast approaching, it is a good time to look at the underlying factors for the 2022 U.S. SW crop.

Conditions Improved

The PNW wheat-growing region remains in some form of drought. Yet crop conditions there are considerably better than in the Plains. Following significantly more winter moisture, spring weather has also returned to normal, with rain and mild temperatures reported in Washington’s Palouse region and north-central Oregon.

Idaho wheat conditions are rated 56% good or excellent. Oregon’s conditions rate 55% good or excellent, and Washington state, the leading SW producer, with 52% of the crop rated good or excellent.

Kernels of soft white wheat

Better moisture gave the 2022 U.S. soft white wheat crop an initial boost. If conditions hold, there will be better yields and quality compared to the 2021 crop. Soft white wheat kernel photo by U.S. Wheat Associates. 

Better Than 2021

Last year, persistent hot and dry weather hit the PNW, impacting both yield and protein content for soft white wheat. According to the U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Crop Quality Report, the average soft white protein on a 12% moisture basis in 2021 was 11.3%, 15% higher than in 2020 and 16% above the 5-year average. Production was down 28% compared to the 5-year average. In Washington, the leading SW producer, yields were slashed 47% compared to 2020/21.

Ending stocks are especially tight, with the USDA estimating a 26% decline compared to last year. The relatively high cost of the smaller white wheat crop and week-to-week price volatility has translated to reduced SW export volume this year. USDA’s April supply and demand estimate reduced exports by 46%, and the latest USW Commercial Sales report showed soft white exports 50% lower year-to-date at 3.33 MMT.

Planted Area Up

However, USDA expects SW area planted for harvest in 2022 to be 3.56 million acres (1.44 million hectares), up 2% compared to last year. That is good news for SW wheat millers. Production potential and farmer revenue from SW is complicated by higher input costs like fertilizer, and the volatile futures market make it difficult for farmers to determine their best course of action. Even so, the improved conditions this year should benefit both SW customers and farmers.

New Crop Hope

Oregon SW wheat farmer and current USW Chairman Darren Padget is optimistic about the potential in his SW crop this year. He said this year has been much more normal than last year, with moisture being much more consistent and plentiful in the winter and spring. He said that in his area of the PNW, “we are on track for an average crop.”

Glen Squires, Chief Executive Officer for the Washington Grain Commission, said that spring conditions have been wetter and cooler than last year. He did, however, warn that subsoil moisture is about the same as last year, around 40% short or very short. Overall, Squires noted that they are optimistic that crop quality and yields will rebound from last year.

By USW Market Analyst Michael Anderson

The header photo is courtesy of the Washington Grain Commission.

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U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat in Drought Adds Supply Concerns

While the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains the biggest driver of wheat futures prices, U.S. winter wheat in drought conditions across the Plains is becoming an increasingly bullish factor. This latest concern is likely to overshadow USDA’s recent estimate for a slight increase in winter wheat acres with potentially serious implications for supplies heading into summer.

On Tuesday,  Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)  soft red winter (SRW) wheat futures reached their highest level since March 23, while Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) were up nearly $0.21 Tuesday and up 50% since the start of the year. The Washington Post this week reported that winter wheat conditions are the poorest in more than two decades for this early in the growing season.

Drought Monitor

Dry weather is not unique in the Plains states, but some years are worse than others. The current USDA drought monitor data indicates that most hard red winter (HRW) wheat is in drought. USDA reported just 32% of winter wheat is in good or excellent condition. That is a two-point improvement compared to last week but far from the 53% good or excellent rating at this time last year. The last time crop conditions were at this level so early was in 1996. According to USDA, total wheat yields that year were 2.41 MT/HA, 24% behind 2021/22, a year that also saw substantial wheat in drought.

USDA map showing where U.S. winter wheat in drought is located

Too Much Wheat in Drought. Of the 69% of winter wheat production USDA shows growing under drought conditions, almost all the 2022/23 HRW wheat crop is struggling in dry top- and subsoil.

Tough Conditions

Growing conditions for the 2022/23 HRW crop have been tough from the start. Last fall, plantings were sown in very dry soil, and precipitation was light. Snowfall was limited, and now above average temperatures with limited rainfall have only added to the stress. Weather forecasts point to more dry weather ahead.

Kansas, the leading HRW producing state, is dry. The U.S. Drought Monitor reports severe drought in the western half of the state. However, Kansas Wheat published a recent story about varied HRW conditions, perhaps unsurprising for a state that is 400 miles (644 kilometers) long. Nevertheless, all the farmers agreed that rain is needed.

State-by-State

To the west of Kansas, conditions are also dry and windy in Colorado. High winds rob the soil of moisture, exacerbating a lack of rainfall. Topsoil moisture conditions were rated 16% very short, while subsoil moisture was rated 17% very short across the region. Both were unchanged from the week before. Nebraska’s wheat conditions are above the national average, with 32% rated good or excellent and 46% rated fair. Soil moisture is short for the state, but decent moisture in the fall has provided some relief. In South Dakota, where winter wheat planting is 4% higher than last year, conditions are rated 58% fair and 22% good to excellent. Given the overall winter wheat conditions, the crop in South Dakota looks strong.  Montana also looks good compared to the average. Wheat rated fair is 62%, while 15% is good to excellent. But like so much of the winter wheat growing area, soil moisture is poor. Most of the state is either in extreme drought or severe drought.

In Oklahoma, the second largest winter wheat producing state after Kansas, conditions improved week-over-week, with 29% of HRW rated good or excellent, up 6 points from a week ago. Texas has the most wheat in drought, with 56% of the statewide crop rated very poor. Long-term drought conditions have impacted the growth of this year’s crop. One Texas Farm Bureau member noted that some farm areas hadn’t seen measurable rainfall at all this calendar year.

April Showers Needed

April is critical for HRW development, and timely rain is needed. And while conditions are not ideal right now, farmers as ever remain optimistic.

You can follow weekly updates on the HRW crop by reading the U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Price Report or the weekly USDA crop progress publication. In May, USW will begin publishing weekly Harvest Reports for the 2022 U.S. wheat crop.

By Michael Anderson, USW Market Analyst

 

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Wheat Facts from USDA’s Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings Reports

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its latest Grain Stocks report and Prospective Plantings report March 31. The report echoed what many market analysts expected, tighter U.S. wheat stocks and higher planted winter wheat area. One significant exception was a slight decline in spring wheat planted area intentions compared to USDA’s previous prediction that planted area would be up.

The Grain Stocks report placed wheat storage at 27.2 MMT, down 22% from last year. The Prospective Plantings report estimated all wheat plantings up 1% compared to 2021 to 47.4 million acres (19.1 million hectares). Despite the increased planted acres year-over-year, if realized, the all-wheat planted area is the fifth-lowest since USDA began keeping records in 1919.

The initial market reaction reflected the relatively unchanged expectation for U.S. winter wheat and the more bullish spring wheat reports.

Grain Stocks

In the quarterly Grain Stocks report, all wheat stored as of March 1, 2022, was 1.02 billion bushels (27.7 MMT), down 22% from a year ago and the lowest in 14 years. On-farm stocks were estimated to fall 39% to 174 million bushels (4.7 MMT).

In North Dakota, the largest spring wheat producer, stocks were down 33%. In Kansas, the largest winter wheat producer, stocks were down 16%. Durum wheat, last updated on December 1, 2021, was reported to fall 30% year-over-year to 43 million bushels (1.1 MMT). Corn stocks were up 2% from last year at 7.85 billion bushels (213.6 MMT).

The latest Grain Stocks report, with reduced supplies, shows the impact drought had on the crop harvested in 2021. The March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reported U.S. ending stocks for all wheat classes at 17.8 MMT, 23% lower than last year. The next report will be published Friday, April 8.

Photo of three grain bins.

U.S. Wheat Stocks Down. Following severe drought, U.S. wheat stocks are down significantly, according to the USDA 2022 Grain Stocks report.

Prospective Plantings

The 2022 Prospective Plantings report confirmed a predicted 2% increase in U.S. winter wheat planted area while indicating a similar percentage decline in U.S. spring wheat and durum planted area. This report is based on a farmer survey taken earlier in March.

In February, USDA expected U.S. winter wheat planted area of 34.4 million acres would be up 2% overall compared to the 2021 crop. Projections now are slightly less at 34.2 million acres, including 23.7 million acres of HRW, 6.89 million acres of SRW, and 3.62 million acres of white wheat (99% soft white).

However, the hard red spring (HRS) and durum prediction are down 2% from USDA’s February estimate to 13.2 million acres and 2% down from planted area in 2021. The report indicates that farmers intend to plant 11.2 million acres of HRS, down from 11.5 million acres in 2021. But durum intentions are pegged up 17% at just under 2.0 million acres.

USDA will update these farmer intentions at the end of June 2022 and provide a final planted area in its annual production report in January 2023.

Alternative Crops Expected Up

Farmers are now considering the profit potential of crops other than spring wheat. In fact, USDA’s survey shows farmers in the Northern Plains spring wheat and durum production area intend to plant 584,000 more acres of barley, dry peas, sunflowers, lentils and flax this year compared to 2021. That is what USDA expected based on the favorable prices of those alternative crops.

Field of barley to illustrate alternative crops

Alternative Spring Crop Planting Predicted Up. USDA’s 2022 Planting Intentions report suggests that U.S. farmers will plant more alternative crops like barley (above) in the spring wheat and durum production area.

There can be significant differences between the March Prospective Plantings, June Acreage, and final planted area of crops like spring wheat and durum. In addition to decisions about alternative crops, total planted area of spring wheat and durum will also be affected by the weather. DTN Contributing Analyst Joel Karlin provided perspective on these potential differences in a Progressive Farmer column published March 30.

The report suggests another crossover of U.S. corn and soybean planting intentions. Farmers told USDA/NASS they expect to plant 4% less corn and 4% more soybeans in 2022. If realized, soybean planted area of 91 million acres would be a record amount.

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U.S. Wheat Highlights from USDA’s First Look at 2022/23

An increase in planted area, production and lower prices are among the U.S. wheat highlights USDA shared Feb. 24, at its 2022 Agricultural Outlook Forum.

These U.S. wheat highlights and USDA’s outlook for all U.S. agricultural products represent the first predictions for marketing year 2022/23. The new year for U.S. wheat starts June 1, 2022, and changes are to be expected. In addition, it is important to note that USDA’s outlook does not account for unknown potential effects of the conflict in Ukraine.

In the “Grains and Oilseeds Outlook for 2022,” USDA cited high current wheat prices and tight stocks to predict U.S. farmers will plant 48.0 million acres (19.43 hectares) to wheat for harvest in 2022. That is about 3% more than was planted for 2021. Using an assumption of normal spring planting and summer crop development conditions, USDA expects U.S. wheat prices will come down in 2022 with higher U.S. wheat production and ending stocks.

Winter Wheat Up; Competition for Spring Area

U.S. wheat highlights included the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) estimate of 34.4 million acres of winter wheat planted for harvest in 2022. That is the largest area since 2016/17. The report noted that “combined spring and durum wheat plantings for 2022/23 are also projected higher,” but could be constrained by higher potential return from other crops that farmers in the Northern Plains can grow.

Image shows a large farm planter and tractor to illustrate planted area among U.S. wheat highlights for 2022

USDA’s initial outlook for U.S. wheat highlights in 2022 includes a significant increase in planted wheat area as farmers try to take advantage of higher farm gate prices.

Again, assuming normal conditions through harvest and the long-term trend, USDA initially expects average yield (production per acre) for all U.S. wheat in 2022 to increase 11% from the drought-affected 2021 yield. If farmers achieve this increase, USDA expects the larger crop will help increase total U.S. 2022/23 supplies by 5% to 2.708 billion bushels or 73.71 million metric tons (MMT).

Total U.S. Wheat Use Up a Bit

Annual use for food, seed and feed is one U.S. wheat highlight that stays relatively flat. And USDA expects 2022 to be no exception. Total domestic wheat use in 2022 is predicted at 30.68 MMT.

USDA does expect U.S. wheat exports to rebound slightly from 2021/22 to 23.14 MMT. “U.S. wheat export prices have continued to rise amid tight supplies, making the United States less competitive globally,” USDA reported.

Illustrates export demand among U.S. wheat highlights in USDA's 2022 outlook.

One U.S. wheat highlight from USDA’s Global Grains and Oilseeds Outlook for 2022 is for increased exports.

Given these predicted market factors, USDA expects the United States will end the marketing year with 19.9 MMT of wheat stocks. That is up 13% from USDA’s current prediction for 2021/22, but still less than the 5-year average.

Follow USW’s Supply and Demand Report

As USDA adjusts its U.S. wheat highlights and global estimates each month, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) updates its comprehensive Supply and Demand Report. It is available online at the USW website. For additional U.S. wheat highlights, free subscriptions to USW Price Report, Harvest Report, and the Wheat Letter blog are available here.

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Dry Conditions Continue Affecting Global Wheat Production

In a market-moving report in February, USDA cut its 2021/22 global wheat production estimate by more than 2 million metric tons (MMT) from its January estimate. USDA also increased its world wheat consumption estimate.

What is behind this change so late in the marketing year?

This year, high wheat prices remain a fixture as drought in major exporting countries cut trade supplies. However, coming into better focus is the hard-hitting drought in Middle Eastern countries that usually grow more wheat for domestic use.

Chart shows significant run up in wheat prices reflecting lower global wheat production.

Supply Restrained

Iran, Syria, Iraq, Turkey, and Egypt have all seen crop reductions during the 2021/22 growing season, contributing to lower global wheat production. That suggests higher wheat import volumes will be needed to meet domestic demand. This is significant because, taken as a whole, the region is expected to import 35.5 MMT of wheat in 2021/22. That is 17% of USDA’s global import forecast of 204.8 MMT. In 2020/21, these five countries imported 25.9 MMT or 13% of the global wheat trade.

USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) report on Iran estimates wheat production to be down 3 MMT to 12 MMT total. Syrian wheat production is estimated at 2 MMT, and in Iraq, production is estimated at 3.5 MMT. Much of the production shortfall is being made up by imports from Russia, which enjoys a transportation advantage, FAS reported.

A look into the situation in these countries is helpful.

Iran

In October 2021, Reuters reported that Iran, which has imported around 1.0 MMT of wheat annually over the last five years, would need to import 8 MMT in 2021/22 to ensure a steady bread supply. The Foreign Agricultural Service forecast wheat imports at 7 MMT this year, up nearly 5 MMT compared to other years. Iran suffered its worst drought in half a century during the 2021 growing season, cutting the wheat crop by 30%, said industry sources.

Syria

In Syria, the “Year of Wheat” campaign has been challenged by low rainfall, leaving an import gap of 1.5 MMT. The United Nations (UN) Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said that Syria would need to import at least 1.5 MMT of wheat. The organization said the government’s target of 1.2 MMT of local wheat, purchased through forced sales of wheat from Syrian farmers to the government, “looked unrealistic.”

Iraq

Iraq’s state-grain buyer said it procured around 3.36 MMT of local wheat in 2021, down from 5.02 MMT in 2020. The Grain Board said in December it plans to import 2 MMT of wheat in 2022. Unlike the other countries discussed here, Iraq is less price-sensitive and buys high-quality wheat from U.S., Australian and Canadian origins. When Iraq’s Ministry of trade was actively tendering for wheat between 2017 and 2019, more than half its imports came from the United States. Before this year, two exceptionally large Iraqi wheat crops have met domestic demand.

The Chart shows decline in production in Iran, Syria and Iraq that affects global wheat production

Smaller Crops. Drought has hit several Middle Eastern countries, contributing to lower global wheat production and increased trade. Source: USDA/Foreign Agricultural Service Global Market Analysis.

Turkey

This month, the USDA/FAS agricultural attaché in Turkey reduced the estimate for wheat imports in 2021/22 by 5 MMT to 10.8 MMT. Even so, the revised estimate is 33% higher than imports from previous marketing years. The FAS office also said wheat production in 2021/22 had fallen 2 MMT to 16.25 MMT. The Attaché’s report is lower than the recent WASDE report, which put Turkey’s wheat imports at 11 MMT. The Turkish Statistic Institute showed that wheat imports during the first six months of the 2021/22 trade year (June-November 2021) grew by 20% year-on-year.

Egypt

Egypt is the largest importer of wheat in the world. It produces less than half the wheat it consumes annually. According to the Egyptian Supply Minister, the government is working hard to diversify its suppliers. The recent tension between Russia and Ukraine could disrupt 80% of Egypt’s grain flow. Despite an increased harvest forecast of 9 MMT for domestic wheat, 100,000 MT more than 2020/21, domestic consumption is expected to increase 400,000 MT. Egypt’s imports are expected to increase 7% compared to the 5-year average.

The chart shows a big increase in wheat imports by Middle East countries and effect on global wheat production

More Wheat Needed. With lower production, import demand for wheat is expected to be up this year in Iran, Iraq, Syria and other wheat-producing countries. Source: USDA/Foreign Agricultural Service Global Market Analysis.

Drought, Supply and Prices

Global wheat production challenges fueled by drought have certainly driven this market in the past. And this month, USDA summarized its report this way: “the global wheat outlook for 2021/22 is for lower supplies, higher consumption, increased trade, and reduced ending stocks.”

The price incentive for farmers to produce more wheat for 2022/23 is real. The world will be watching to see if Mother Nature supports that effort.

By Michael Anderson, USW Market Analyst

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