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By Dalton Henry, USW Vice President of Policy

The U.S., Mexico, Canada Agreement (USMCA) is moving steadily, if somewhat slowly, to becoming an implemented trade treaty. Mexico’s government first ratified the agreement in June 2019. At the request of the U.S. House of Representatives, the agreement was revised and signed again by all three countries in December 2019, after which Mexico’s government voted to ratify the revised agreement.  President Trump signed the U.S. implementing language for the agreement in a widely attended ceremony on January 29, 2020. And now, ratification is being considered by Canada’s parliament, a process many trade watchers expect to run through March 2020 at least.

The latest step puts us a mere hop, skip and a jump from having a new trade agreement in place with two of the U.S. agriculture’s largest customers. Most importantly to wheat industry stakeholders, the new agreement moves us past the bold threats of withdrawal from NAFTA and fully protects access to U.S. wheat on a duty-free basis for Mexican customers, modernizes sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) provisions and removes the largest remaining barrier (eligibility for grades) for U.S. producers who want to sell wheat to Canadian elevators.

On that final point, USMCA assures that U.S. wheat sold in Canada is not automatically graded as feed. It is one of the more significant new provisions in the USMCA. President Trump specifically mentioned it in his remarks at the White House signing ceremony. Western Canadian wheat growers support it.

Under the agreement, U.S. farmers interested in taking wheat across the border will still have to verify that wheat is one of the varieties registered in Canada. But it is worth celebrating that farmers near the Canadian border will have additional local outlets for grain, potential market arbitrage opportunities and a basic fairness between growers on either side of the border. These grain grading changes will give Canada a reprieve from the threat of non-compliance with the WTO’s “national treatment” standard and forces legislative changes that the Canadian government had promised to make for the better part of a decade (but never actually put into place).

Necessary changes in domestic regulations across all three countries are still needed. Those changes will be followed by a 60-day monitoring period to verify the changes are being implemented. An exchange of letters between the three countries is the seal for the deal. Wheat growers and buyers in USMCA – the new NAFTA – are very much looking forward to that day.

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By Vince Peterson, USW President

Today, I had the unique privilege to accept an invitation to the White House to represent U.S. wheat farmers, our state wheat commission members and U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) as President Donald Trump signs implementing legislation for the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) into U.S. law (that’s my viewpoint at the ceremony in the picture above).

While this invitation came addressed to me, it is only because I occupy a specific desk at USW with the consent of our U.S. farmer board of directors. I sincerely hope that everyone associated with our organization feels the same pride I do to witness this important national event because everyone put in a tremendous amount of work to help bring it about.

The trade agreement USMCA will replace (after Canada’s parliament approves it and implementing changes are made, as we are sure will happen) opened mutually beneficial trade between U.S. wheat farmers and Mexico’s flour millers and wheat food industry. Under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), USW focused on helping Mexico’s buyers, millers and food processors solve problems or increase their business opportunities with U.S. wheat classes—as it does with all U.S. wheat importing customers. This effort, supported by wheat farmers and the partnership with USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, has fostered a productive relationship that has endured through many challenges.

So, when the Trump Administration announced in 2017 it intended to renegotiate NAFTA, USW quickly engaged in the process on many levels to advocate for continued duty-free wheat trade and other improvements in the agreement.

For example, I invited José Luis Fuente, President of the Mexican Millers Association (CANIMOLT), to address the USW board of directors meeting in October 2017. Sr. Fuente had been appointed as an advisor to the Mexican Minister of Agriculture in the negotiations. He made a passionate plea for USW to work together toward resolving the trade agreement as soon as possible. In addition, our former Vice President of Policy Ben Conner was granted status as an advisor to the U.S. Trade Representative and was one of only a few agricultural industry representatives who participated in side-briefings at almost all the official negotiating sessions. Vice President of Communications Steve Mercer, his team and our friends at the National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG) published an on-going series of press statements, social media posts, comments and fact sheets supporting our positions. As the U.S. Congress considered the agreement, NAWG’s staff and its dedicated farmer officers and directors continued to advocate for its passage.

Regional Vice President Mitch Skalicky and our staff in Mexico City steadfastly maintained contact with Sr. Fuente and our other customers. Then, last year at a USW marketing conference in Mexico, USW and Mexican millers renewed our agreement to work together toward approval of the USMCA. We also made it very clear that our commitment to serving their industries was among our most important goals.

“We have 14 farmers here representing 13 different state wheat commissions, and U.S. Wheat Associates staff from 3 offices here to show you that we take your business seriously,” Past Chairman Chris Kolstad told the millers. Those farmers, state commission members and USW, he added, “are all united in our desire to earn your full trust in the United States as your primary source of imported wheat.”

After I received the White House invitation to the USMCA signing ceremony, I forwarded a copy to Sr. Fuente with a note of thanks and congratulations to him and CANIMOLT members for their work and the collaborative effort toward a favorable agreement for each of us.

“We congratulate U.S. Wheat Associates on behalf of the Mexican millers for all of the collaborative work, negotiations, and achievements attained (in negotiating the new USMCA),” Sr. Fuente responded to Mitch Skalicky and me. “I am very happy and proud to have been part of the effort and above all to confirm the excellent relations and friendship that exists between the Mexican milling industry and the U.S wheat industry.”

That is a humbling and generous confirmation that our relationship stayed strong throughout the negotiations. USW will continue to work hard to make our partnership even stronger in the future.

José Luis Fuente, President of CANIMOLT, addresses the USW Mexican Wheat Trade Conference in June 2019.

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The U.S. wheat industry is speaking out boldly on the need to pass the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) this year.

Speaking at a widely attended rally sponsored by Farmers for Free Trade on Capitol Hill today, Ben Scholz, a wheat farmer from Lavon, Tex., said agriculture and wheat farmers desperately needs a win in trade and “passing the USMCA will put us in the right direction.”

As President of the National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG), Scholz was representing all U.S. wheat farmers and, by proxy, their loyal customers in Mexico, at the rally. Members of Congress, including House Agriculture Committee Chairman Collin Peterson and Ranking Member Mike Conaway, as well as other farm leaders attended the event to discuss how USMCA provides growers with improved market access while maintaining the zero-tariff platform.

“Over the past five years, Mexico has consistently been the top market for U.S. wheat exports,” said Scholz. “USMCA retains tariff-free access to imported U.S. wheat for our long-time flour milling customers in Mexico. Further, the Agreement takes an important step towards fixing the Canadian grain grading system which automatically designates U.S. wheat imported as the lowest grade wheat which puts America’s wheat growers at a competitive disadvantage.”

Ben Scholz, a wheat farmer from Lavon, Tex.

On behalf of wheat farmers, NAWG is a member of Farmers for Free Trade, which is very focused on getting USMCA passed, including sponsoring #MotorcadeForTrade to highlight the importance of ag trade with Mexico and Canada and passing USMCA. In June 2019, NAWG joined nearly 1,000 groups representing the U.S. food and agriculture value chain at the national, state and local levels in signing a letter supporting USMCA passage. This week, Ben was also joined by fellow NAWG growers from several other states to meet with more than two dozen congressional offices to urge swift consideration of USMCA.

NAWG and U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) applauded the three countries for working together to finalize USMCA. This agreement includes important provisions for wheat farmers. Retaining tariff-free access to imported U.S. wheat for Mexico is a crucial step toward rebuilding trust in U.S. wheat as a reliable supplier in this important, neighboring market.

USW thanks Ben and the entire NAWG organization for their efforts representing wheat farmer interests in Congress.

About NAWG
NAWG is the primary policy representative in Washington D.C. for wheat growers, working to ensure a better future for America’s growers, the industry and the general public. NAWG works with a team of 20 state wheat grower organizations to benefit the wheat industry at the national levels. From their offices in the Wheat Growers Building on Capitol Hill, NAWG’s staff members are in constant contact with state association representatives, NAWG grower leaders, Members of Congress, Congressional staff members, Administration officials and the public.

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Headlines on the trade front this week have direct bearing on the U.S. wheat industry’s desire to reaffirm our trade relationship with long-standing customers in Japan and Mexico, and to renew our relationship with customers in China. For now, at least, the news is positive.

U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Ambassador Robert Lighthizer this week told members of Congress that the Trump Administration hopes to “wrap up” an agricultural trade agreement with Japan “later this year.” That is good news for flour millers in Japan, who do not want to continue paying incremental effective tariffs for U.S. soft white (SW), hard red spring (HRS) and hard red winter (HRW) relative to Canadian and Australian wheat under the new TPP-11 agreement. Repairing this potential breach with Japan is essential for wheat farmers who, with their partnership with the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service have invested countless resources for more than 60 years to serve the demanding Japanese flour and wheat foods industries.

Amb. Lighthizer also reached out to members of Congress who have expressed concerns about the new U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement on Trade (USMCA). In a description of his remarks, Agri-Pulse reported that the USTR “bent over backwards to assure Democrats on the Senate Finance Committee that he was hearing and addressing their concerns, both about enforcing labor rules in Mexico and about whether the trade pact would hamstring efforts to lower pharmaceutical prices.” At the U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) 2019 Mexico Wheat Trade Conference early this month, our colleagues and our customers in Mexico identified that supporting the USMCA will be our shared focus. They took another big step today with news that Mexico’s Senate on Wednesday passed the USMCA, making it the first country to ratify the new trade pact. Mexico’s imports are the foundation of farm family incomes throughout the southern and central U.S. Plains. Losing it because of trade policies beyond their control is unthinkable.

On June 18, President Trump raised expectations for some positive trade outcome from his planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the upcoming G-20 summit. He said he had a “long talk” with Pres. Xi and, according to news reports, said “China very much wants to discuss the future and so do we.” In this case, “we” definitely includes U.S. wheat farmers who have been all but shut out of exporting wheat to China following the imposition of retaliatory tariffs in March 2018. Before then, Chinese flour millers and their baking customers were demanding more high-quality U.S. wheat to blend with domestic wheat. Now, China has replaced our wheat with competing supplies of Canadian spring wheat.

As Amb. Lighthizer said during his congressional testimony on negotiations with Japan, “I think we are making headway and we’re in a situation where we if we don’t make headway quickly, people will lose market share and never get those customers back.”

USW continues to support the need to enforce commitments made in multi- and bilateral trade agreements and, given this week’s upbeat news, look forward to a speedy resolution of these challenging situations.

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By Steve Mercer, USW Vice President of Communications

When U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) was planning to hold its 2019 Mexico Wheat Trade Conference June 2 to 4, 2019, no one anticipated that the threat of new tariffs on Mexican imports would come just two days before the meeting started.

“What we thought was an unfortunate coincidence turned out to be a fortunate opportunity to address the trade policy concerns face to face with our Mexican customers,” said USW President Vince Peterson. “Talking through the potential concerns that way allowed us to move on to talk about how we can work together to navigate the policy issues and increase the efficiency and value of Mexico’s U.S. wheat purchases. We found that our shared challenges bring us closer together.”

2019 Mexico Wheat Trade Conference Cancún

 

In the just ended marketing year 2018/19, Mexican flour millers imported more U.S. wheat than any other country. The flour millers that attended the conference in Cancún represented about 80% of the 3.3 million metric tons (MMT) total 2018/19 commercial sales to Mexico reported by USDA as of May 30. USW Chairman Chris Kolstad, a wheat farmer from Ledger, Mont., thanked the millers for this and past business, and assured them that “USW and the National Association of Wheat Growers will do everything in our power to ensure that the USMCA Agreement on Trade is approved.”

Kolstad said the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) served both countries well and the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will continue to benefit the three countries with increased trade and new economic opportunity. His focus set the stage for insight from other conference speakers into why approval of USMCA is so important. They all agreed that the agreement will be implemented — but they do not know when it will happen.

Interviewing conference attendee, Francisco Salas Romero, Harinas.

Interviewing conference attendee, Francisco Salas Romero, Harinas.

“NAFTA has integrated the U.S. and Mexican economies steadily over 30 years,” said speaker Juan Carlos Baker, who served on the Mexican government’s USMCA negotiating team and now is a private trade consultant in Mexico. “But recently, the negative voices about NAFTA and USMCA have been the loudest. We must tell the positive stories about our trade benefits and the USMCA. I believe we will have a new agreement and will be able to continue trade, but how open it will be is up to us to determine.”

José Luis Fuente, President of Camara Nacional de LA Industria Molinera de Trigo (CANIMOLT), offered an inspired appeal to work together to tell officials in both countries that export opportunities must be improved, not restricted.

José Luis Fuente, President of Camara Nacional de LA Industria Molinera de Trigo (CANIMOLT)

José Luis Fuente, President of Camara Nacional de LA Industria Molinera de Trigo (CANIMOLT)

“We know that U.S. wheat farmers and U.S. Wheat Associates have done many things to tell this story,” Mr. Fuente said. “We have a partnership based on affection that is backed by actions. But actions are more needed now in this unusual trade environment.”

A large portion of the conference focused on other actions that can help facilitate U.S. wheat trade between Mexico and the United States. Two speakers focused on how millers can manage price risk. Christopher Lawrence, Senior Market Strategist with Rabobank, covered how best to hedge exchange rate exposure between U.S. dollars and Mexican pesos. Austin Damiani, an independent wheat futures trader from Minneapolis, Minn., provided valuable insight into hedging price risk.

<em>Austin Damiani, independent trader, Minneapolis Grain Exchange</em>

Austin Damiani, independent trader, Minneapolis Grain Exchange

“It is very important to consider locking in prices with futures,” Damiani said. “I am a speculator who bets on how the market will move. That is a risky activity. But I believe that as wheat buyers, if you are not hedging you are speculating.”

Panel discussion speakers: Justin Gilpin, CEO, Kansas Wheat; and Luis Olivera, Executive Vice President Sales, Ferromex, Mexico City.

Panel discussion speakers: Justin Gilpin, CEO, Kansas Wheat; and Luis Olivera, Executive Vice President Sales, Ferromex, Mexico City.

With so many logistical options for delivering wheat to Mexico, USW Regional Vice President Mitch Skalicky and his colleagues based in Mexico City who planned the conference emphasized commercial rail issues and opportunities in the program. A panel discussion on optimizing rail shipments and minimizing additional expenses included the President of Kansas City Southern Railroad-Mexico, and the Executive Vice President of Sales for Ferromex (Mexico’s national rail system). These two private sector companies are the principal railroads who operate Mexico’s rail lines through long term concessions that they have with the Government of Mexico. Representatives from the Mexican government and U.S. wheat grower organizations were also included on the panel. Gabriel Letona of Advan Sea in Panama City, Panama, also discussed the comparative advantages of FOB and CIF ocean freight contracting.

Presentations on contracting to receive U.S. wheat of superior value and how the U.S. farmer co-operative system has evolved as a major source of efficiently delivered wheat and grain exports rounded out what participants deemed as a very welcome and successful conference.

Chuck Conner, CEO, National Council of Farmer Cooperatives

Chuck Conner, CEO, National Council of Farmer Cooperatives

“We have 14 farmers here from 13 different states and U.S. Wheat Associates staff from 3 offices to show you that we take your business seriously,” Chris Kolstad told the millers. Those farmers, state commission members and USW, he added, “are all united in our desire and goal to earn your full trust in the United States as your primary source of imported wheat.”

*Header Photo Caption: Panel on “Optimizing Rail Operations of U.S. Wheat Shipments and Minimizing Additional Expenses for Mexican Importers.

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By Ben Conner, USW Vice President of Policy

If there is anything we learned from 2018, it is that the trade policy landscape is unpredictable. While many upcoming or ongoing issues are known, there are a range of possible outcomes within each, some of which could drastically alter the trade landscape in the future.

Let us start with China. This week, U.S. and Chinese negotiators met in Beijing to work toward resolving the current trade dispute, which has seen tariffs slapped on over $300 billion in trade. According to the U.S. Trade Representative, there is a hard deadline of Mar. 1 to reach a deal that will at least prevent further imposition of tariffs. U.S. wheat farmers have been shut out of China since March 2018, leaving their Chinese customers scrambling for other sources. The next couple months could reveal if trade will resume this year, or if the conflict will continue.

The United States has also initiated formal processes for trade negotiations with Japan, the European Union, and the United Kingdom (U.S. Wheat Associates will submit comments on the UK negotiations next week). However, there are still a number of unknowns, such as the scope and length of negotiations with Japan, the inclusion of agriculture in negotiations with the EU and the nature of the UK’s post-Brexit relationship with the EU.

The new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will likely be submitted to Congress this year to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), but shifting political dynamics in the United States complicate Congressional approval and implementation of the agreement.

There is the threat of new tariffs on automobiles under Section 232 authority, potentially covering hundreds of billions in trade. While this is mitigated somewhat due to side letters negotiated alongside USMCA and the promise to avoid imposing tariffs on Japan and the EU while negotiations are ongoing, declaring automobile imports to be a national security threat has the potential to enrage U.S. trading partners and lead to new retaliatory measures.

Finally, there is the possibility that the World Trade Organization (WTO) Appellate Body will cease to function by December 2019. This is the culmination of over a decade of complaints by the United States about the way the Appellate Body functions. It is important for other countries to engage the United States to find a solution, because if a solution is not reached, it will mean the effective end of the WTO’s dispute settlement function and the ability of countries to enforce trade commitments.

In other words, based on the uncertainty these trade issues represent, we cannot expect 2019 to be less exciting than 2018.

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By Ben Conner, USW Vice President of Policy

U.S. trade policy has been going through a wild ride recently. The current U.S. administration believes that the existing trade architecture is outdated or constricting, and new forms of leverage are needed to achieve its goals. Meanwhile, they have correctly pointed out that some countries seem to interpret trade commitments as rules to ignore until caught, and then to be circumvented. In the words of President Trump, “they have been taking advantage of us.”

In our view, this perspective has a ring of truth but understates the major benefits of international trade institutions to the United States and may have long-term costs. However, using the space such leverage creates has certainly produced results in trade talks, including an updated U.S.-Korea agreement, a completed North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) renegotiation, renewed efforts to address longstanding U.S. complaints at the World Trade Organization (WTO) and agreements to begin negotiations with Japan and the European Union.

This situation has even allowed U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) to make progress on some longstanding issues, so we certainly appreciate the effort to use the tools available in ways that can help U.S. wheat farmers and their customers.

Overall, these tactics have shifted the U.S. role from a bulwark of the global trading system to a major disruptor. The Trump Administration is making a case that the rules-based system has been inadequate in disciplining policies of countries like China that have pursued state-led economic growth at the expense of once-vibrant industries in the United States and elsewhere. Regardless of one’s views on the approach, this case does deserve consideration and new rules will likely be needed to keep the rules-based system relevant.

Of course, we do not know fully what the cost of these tactics will be. The most obvious cost to U.S. wheat farmers is being shut out of the growing Chinese wheat market, uncertainty during the NAFTA negotiations and vulnerability created by the withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The imposition or threat of unilateral tariff barriers is particularly worrisome and has damaged crucial trade relationships.

USW will continue to question certain approaches that we believe could disrupt the hard-won, mutually beneficial trade between the wheat farmers we represent and their overseas customers. But we will also strongly support the Administration when its approach can help strengthen the international trading system and make trade freer. If that is the ultimate outcome perhaps the ride will have been worth it.

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By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst

 

There is an old saying: “When there’s blood on the streets, buy property.” Given recent price movements, that could easily be changed to: “When trade policies are in the news, buy wheat.”

 

Since the steel and aluminum tariffs went into full effect for major U.S. wheat customers, September Kansas City hard red winter (HRW) wheat futures have fallen 51 cents per bushel ($19 per metric ton [MT]), September Chicago soft red winter (SRW) wheat futures dropped 25 cents per bushel ($9 per MT) and Minneapolis hard red spring (HRS) plunged 58 cents per bushel ($21 per MT).

 

Seasonal harvest pressure always impacts U.S. wheat prices during the summer months; however, this year the unique trade environment is also pressuring export demand and driving U.S. wheat prices lower. As of July 19, U.S. export sales for marketing year 2018/19 (June 1 to May 31) totaled 6.43 MMT, down 32 percent year over year. Exporters note that customers are choosing to purchase smaller than normal volumes of U.S. wheat, just what they need for the short-term or are waiting to make purchases, noting uncertainty about U.S. trade policies and their own countries’ retaliatory measures. Sales to the top five U.S. wheat customers — Mexico, Japan, the Philippines, Korea and Nigeria — are 27 percent behind last year’s pace.

 

Futures v Global S&D

U.S. wheat futures prices are not reflecting global supply and demand realities. Buyers are uncertain about the effects of unforeseen tariff wars and have altered their typical wheat import cadences.

With trade policy issues dominating the headlines, U.S. wheat futures markets are mostly ignoring global wheat supply and demand fundamentals, which can be seen in competitors’ wheat prices. The average global wheat price is up 41 cents per bushel ($15 per MT) with larger increases noted in Australia and Argentina, which compete with the United States in key quality-driven markets. According to International Grains Council (IGC) data, the average price of Australian wheat is up $19 per MT and the average price of Argentine wheat is up $75 per MT. These price increases are driven by increased global wheat demand, shrinking global wheat supplies and their location.

 

USDA noted in last week’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand estimates that global wheat production will fall to 737 MMT in 2018/19, the first drop in 5 years and down 3 percent from 2017/18. Decreased production is expected in the European Union (EU), Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Australia. While the United States, Canada and Argentina are expected to have increased production, exporter supplies are expected to fall 20.2 MMT year over year.

 

Simultaneously, many importers are engaging in “just in time” purchases since wheat price movement has rewarded their patience the last few years. USDA expects importer ending stocks to fall to 49.8 MMT in 2018/19, the lowest amount in a decade.

 

While importer stocks are shrinking, USDA expects global wheat demand to surge to a new record high of 749 MMT, 4 percent above the 5-year average. That means that global wheat consumption will outpace global wheat production by 12.6 MMT this year and drop the global wheat stocks-to-use ratio (excluding China) to less than 20 percent. A level that has not been seen since 2007/08.

 

For perspective, in July 2007 all three wheat futures were above $6.00 per bushel ($220 per MT) and would continue climbing until March 2008 when prices peaked at $11.60 per bushel ($426 per MT) for SRW, $12.17 per bushel ($447 per MT) for HRW and $17.30 per bushel ($636 per MT) for HRS. On Friday, July 20, those three futures were at $5.16 per bushel ($190 per MT), $5.08 per bushel ($187 per MT) and $5.55 per bushel ($204 per MT), respectively, indicating there is a lot of room for upward mobility.

 

With exporter supplies shrinking and importers continuing a “just in time” purchasing pattern, global wheat prices are sitting on a powder keg that trade policy issues are currently disguising. Customers should take advantage of current U.S. futures price levels and lock in the competitive prices.

 

To track U.S. wheat export prices, subscribe to the USW Weekly Price Report.

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Overall, U.S. wheat farmers are certain they produce some of the highest quality milling wheat in the world and want to compete on that basis freely and fairly. That desire is being challenged in unique ways right now by trade policies and global reactions that have never been a part of the world wheat market. To express the challenges of these policies on farmers and the rural community, the National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG) this week arranged for one of their members to testify before the U.S. House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee’s Trade Subcommittee. We want to share that testimony here:

Mr. Chairman and Members of the Committee. My name is Michelle Erickson-Jones and I am the Co-Owner of Gooseneck Land and Cattle from Broadview, Montana. I also currently serve as the President of the Montana Grain Growers Association, am on the Board of Directors of the National Association of Wheat Growers and a member of Farmers for Free Trade. As a fourth generation farmer, it is my honor to testify today on the impacts of tariffs on my farm, my industry and most importantly my community that depends on trade for its livelihood.

American agriculture is a tremendous global marketing success story. We export 50 percent of our wheat and soybeans, 70 percent of fruit nuts, and more than 25 percent of our pork. We are also the top exporter of corn in the world. Exports account for 20 percent of all U.S. farm revenue and we rely on strong commercial relationships in key markets including Canada, Mexico, Japan, the European Union and, of course, China – the second largest market for U.S. agriculture, accounting for nearly $19 billion in exports in 2017. U.S. agriculture exports also support over 1,000,000 American jobs. As such, trade is critically important to the U.S. economy and our rural communities.

Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA) and Michelle Erickson-Jones.

Farmers across the country depend heavily on the ability to sell our commodities to foreign consumers. We are painfully aware of the prevalence of unfair trading practices used by some countries and we support the Administration’s interest in finding solutions to tariff and non-tariff barriers that impede fair trade. But what I’d like to share with you today are some examples of the impact of tariffs imposed by our own Administration and by the retaliatory tariffs levied by our trading partners. These impacts are felt by farmers such as myself throughout our supply chain, from higher input costs to reduced exports and lower market prices.

In May, I testified at Section 301 hearing at the International Trade Commission. As I said then and believe more strongly than ever now, “while many rural American families are optimistic about economic growth under the current Administration, there is mounting concern among farmers about trade policies that would reduce access to the export markets they depend on.”

There have been very few issues in my career as a farmer that have caused me to lose sleep. But these tariffs are one of them. I’d like to share some of the effects that have directly impacted my farm and family.

The first wave started at the time the Administration imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum. For me and farmers across the country that translates into increased costs of capital investments. For example, earlier this year we priced a new 25,000-bushel grain bin to increase grain storage capacity on our farm. The price was 12 percent higher than an identical bin we had built in 2017.

As we weighed our options, the bid on bin #2 expired, so we sought a second bid. This bid was 8 percent higher than the one we received just a few weeks prior – a 20 percent increase total in the cost of the same steel product in just one year.

The bin company attributed the difference in the final bin cost to a significant increase in their cost of steel. I learned that their domestically sourced steel suppliers had increased their prices to match the price of imported steel which was subject to an additional 25 percent duty when imported. As a result of this dramatic cost increase and volatility in the market, we abandoned our grain storage expansion project. The implications of that decision not only harmed my operation, it also hurt my community: a small local construction company lost a project, a U.S. grain bin company missed a sale, and a domestic steel company had one less shipment to send out of their factory.

Another unexpected outcome is something we are living through right now. Back in January, we built cattle guards for several capital improvement projects we had planned for later in the fall. A neighbor saw the finished product and asked to buy several from us. We agreed because we thought we would be able to utilize the profits for other investments. Last week I priced the steel needed to replace the cattle guards I had sold. To my shock, the price of steel had increased 38 percent – evaporating our profits. To make matters worse, now we will no longer break even on the project.

These scenarios are playing out across the nation, particularly the states that depend on agriculture. These states depend on healthy agricultural commerce for a robust economy. As our profits evaporate and our ability to spend on rural main street businesses or take weekends away decreases, our other top economies, including tourism and manufacturing, are negatively impacted as well.

While one singular example is a small sum of money in the big picture, adding up those small singular examples shows the real and substantial increase to agriculture and rural main street.

There are countless examples in Montana, where last summer, large portions of my state were on fire. Just imagine the cost or replacing fencing or other equipment with prices increasing by double digits – at a time of record low prices for agriculture commodities. The impacts on our input costs coupled with increased market volatility and lower farmgate prices have further reduced our already slim margins. According to the USDA Economic Research Service net farm income is expected to drop to a 12-year low, down 6.7 percent from 2017.

Now allow me to further illustrate the impact of tariffs on our topline – sales – especially in an industry that exports $450 million in wheat to China annually, $65 million of which was from Montana. China is the world’s largest wheat consumer, with a significant trade opportunity in their market. In market year 2016/2017 China was our fourth largest customer, however when China placed a 25 percent retaliatory tariff against U.S. wheat not one new shipment has been purchased from the United States since March, and the last shipment arrived in June.

Wheat growers also understand that China hasn’t been keeping to their trade obligations they agreed to when they joined the WTO (World Trade Organization), and as such the United States has two cases against China for their domestic support programs and their TRQ (tariff rate quota) requirements for wheat, rice and corn. We applaud the Administration for moving forward with these cases and believe this is the proper course of action to hold our trading partners accountable to their trade commitments. We do not, however, support the tariffs which have already hurt many farmers across the United States through both the tariff retaliation and domestic decisions as I have outlined.

For Montana, other commodities are also being hurt. Our producers are already suffering from the 25 percent import tariff on American pork and are bracing for the impacts on beef. Mexico has also targeted these two sectors in response to the steel tariffs.

In addition, these markets that we’ve been growing for decades could be lost to our competitors who do not have tariffs against their products, a fate that could last for years or decades to come. The same can also be said by not seeking or joining new trade agreements, for example when CPTTP (Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership) is implemented our Canadian and Australian wheat competitors will gain a price advantage in Japan against U.S. wheat, potentially losing our largest wheat market.

Currently farmers like me are not only struggling to ensure this year’s crop is profitable, but we are also concerned about the long-term impacts to our valuable export markets. For young and beginning farmers like me the stakes are even higher. We are often highly leveraged, just establishing our operations, as well trying to ensure we have access to enough capital to successfully grow our operations. Increased trade tensions and market uncertainty makes our path forward and our hopes to pass the farm on to our sons less clear. I hope to pass my farm to my sons and as such urge you to consider the tolls these tariffs will have on my operation and how it impacts that possibility, and many other family farms, as outlined in my testimony.

Thank you for the opportunity to testify today.

Image of wheat field to illustrate report on global wheat production

This week marks the 10-year anniversary of the signing of the U.S.-Panama Trade Promotion Agreement and the Korea-U.S. (KORUS) Free Trade Agreement. These were the last free trade agreements completed by the United States. In the decade since, there has been plenty of negotiating, but nothing to show for it.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is on its way to ratification without the United States. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is indefinitely on ice. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) modernization effort is now likely to slip into 2019. An update to KORUS made only cosmetic changes.

Meanwhile no other country has agreed to sit down at the negotiating table as the United States slaps unilateral tariffs on close allies and strategic competitors alike.

The familiar African proverb says that when elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers. Unfortunately for farmers, that grass is the wheat growing in their fields as the big guys in the United States, China and other countries escalate this trade fight.

In a trade war, agriculture always gets hit first and the effects are likely to force overseas customers who want quality U.S. farm products to compromise or seek alternative supplies and to further erode the incomes of farm families who strongly support addressing the real concerns about trade barriers.

That is why in 2016, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) and the National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG) called for World Trade Organization (WTO) cases intended to push China to meet its WTO commitments on domestic support and tariff rate quota management. We are glad the Trump Administration supports and is pursuing those cases. That is also why USW will continue to press for new trade agreements, including U.S. accession to TPP.

USW and NAWG know that farmers still want our organizations to keep fighting for fair trade opportunities because they know they can compete successfully in the world based on the quality and value of what they produce — given the freedom to do so.

We would prefer, however, to see our government do that first within the processes already in place.